Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: ‘The worst is yet to come’ - Flaze News

 

KEY POINTS

• Covid-19 has so far killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
• The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will double by Jan. 1.
• IHME released three projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario.

The U.S. will top more than 410,000 Covid-19 deaths by the end of the year as the country heads into the fall and winter, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Covid-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will more than double by Jan. 1 and could reach as high as 620,000 if states aggressively ease coronavirus restrictions and people disregard public health guidance.

In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track.

“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday.

IHME released three projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario. The most likely scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

Government policies and compliance among the public will largely determine how many people die of Covid-19 this fall and winter, Murray said. He added on a call that he believes there is a seasonal element to the virus, as with other coronaviruses, and that it will spread more easily in the colder Northern climates later in the year. 

On a call, Murray added that the possibility of using mass masks would not be enough to drive the spread of the virus in the autumn and winter. From a policy point of view, the question is how effective such social-era restrictions will be and there is not enough public data to answer that question, he said.

In the United States, new cases of Covid-19 have fallen in more than 70,000 cases in late July. However, new cases appear to be re-introduced on more than 40,000 new cases daily, a level that is widely spread on a level that top health officials have said is going into the autumn. Despite the drop in new cases, the number of deaths in the United States continues to rise to 1,000 new deaths per day, with about 2 new deaths per day, according to data compiled by John hopkins University.

Murray said daily new cases, both globally and in the U.S., may continue to plateau or even drop through September, but they will likely rise come October.

The group projects the global death toll, which currently stands at 869,600, will rise to roughly 2.8 million by Jan. 1. The best-case scenario — where there’s widespread adoption of masks and other safety precautions — forecasts a worldwide death toll of more than 2 million. The worst case scenario predicts 4 million cumulative global deaths by the end of the year.

The latest predictions of importance are based on the assumption of cold weather in the northern half and people spend more time where the coronavirus spreads more easily, keeping the death toll high.

IHME is one of several dozen modeling groups used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to forecast the trajectory of the pandemic. The CDC gathers projections from dozens of major modelling groups and creates their own “ensemble forecast.”

The CDC's most recent forecast, published Thursday, does not provide estimates beyond this week, with plans that "deaths may decrease nationally over the next four weeks, with 3,300 to 7,500 new deaths reported by the end of September."